2011Year 3Japan's nuclear power industry was hit hard by the earthquake, tsunami and Fukushima nuclear power plant accident on November 11. As nuclear power plants entered the "regular inspection" one after another, the proportion of nuclear power in Japan's domestic power generation dropped from 30.8 in 2010 to 7 in December 2011. May 5, 2012 became a "historical day" when all 54 existing nuclear power reactors in Japan stopped operation ", since then, some nuclear power reactors have been restarted after passing safety inspections. At present, 11 reactors, accounting for about a 1/5 of the existing nuclear power reactors, are in operation (figure on November 30, 2012). At the same time, Japan's domestic" anti-nuclear power "The movement continues to rise.

Japan is a "small resource country". After the Second World War, the world once ushered in the era of "one dollar per barrel of crude oil". At that time, Japan followed the trend and promptly shifted from a coal-based energy structure to an oil-based energy structure, especially in the power industry. In 60However, in the 1970 s, two oil crises occurred, crude oil prices rose, and Japan quickly changed its energy consumption structure, which was overly dependent on oil, in terms of electric power, a fuel structure of thermal power generation, led by nuclear power and "tripartite confrontation" with liquefied natural gas (LN G) and coal, has gradually formed (for example, in 2010, nuclear power, L N G and coal accounted for 30.8, 27.2 and 23.8 of thermal power generation respectively, and water power and oil accounted for 8.7 and 8.3 respectively). This shows that the "de-nuclear power" has created a huge gap in Japan's electricity supply. After the Fukushima accident, the theory of "de-nuclear power" prevailed in the world for a while. As far as Japan is concerned, it can be asserted that the history of nuclear power accounting for 30% of Japan's electricity is gone forever, and Japan will definitely move towards the era of "de-nuclear power. This is not only because the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident caused such great damage to Japan, but also because the Fukushima accident occurred because of the earthquake. Earthquakes can be said to be "commonplace" for Japan. Japan's land area accounts for only 0.1 percent of the world's land area. However, 1/10 of the world's annual earthquakes occur in Japan, of which about 1/5 of the earthquakes above the Richter scale occur in Japan. According to experts' prediction, in the next 30 years, the probability of a magnitude 7 earthquake in the densely populated, developed and concentrated South Guandong region is 70%. Japan has built as many as 54 nuclear power plants in such an "unstable" land, which is fundamentally a mistake. Obviously, Japan does not have the natural conditions to become a "nuclear power power", and it is inevitable that Japan will withdraw from the "nuclear power power" club.

For Japan, the top priority is, how to deal with 43The rapid increase in the demand for thermal power generation caused by the shutdown of a nuclear power reactor, how to greatly increase the import of thermal power generation fuels such as oil, natural gas, and coal, and correspondingly carry out energy diplomacy activities in the era of "reducing nuclear power. After the oil crisis in 1973, Japan also actively carried out energy diplomacy, which was called "oil diplomacy" at that time. Compared with energy diplomacy 40 years ago, Japan's energy diplomacy in the era of "de-nuclear power" mainly has the following three characteristics: first, focus on natural gas, and strive to realize the diversification of thermal power fuel structure (coal, oil, traditional natural gas, shale gas, etc.); second, with North America and the Russian Far East, which may become an "energy treasure house" as the main direction, we strive to realize the diversification of thermal power fuel import sources; third, in the context of global advocacy of low-carbon economy, Japan's advanced energy-saving and new energy technology As a "diplomatic card", compete for the dominance of the world energy technology market.

Expanding power generation fuel imports with a focus on natural gas As mentioned earlier, Japan's original 54Only about a 1/5 of nuclear power reactors have resumed operation, and the resulting energy gap has to be made up by increasing the use of coal, oil, and natural gas to generate thermal power. In order to improve the "bargaining power" with resource suppliers and reduce the price of power generation fuel, Japan has actively carried out energy diplomacy to match the denuclearization and structural adjustment of power generation fuel.

In terms of oil, 2010Annual oil thermal power accounts for 8.3 per cent of Japan's total domestic power generation. At present, Japan is still highly dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. In 2011, oil imports from the Middle East accounted for 87% of total oil imports. However, due to the unstable situation in the Middle East and the rapid increase in oil consumption in emerging countries, the price of crude oil has continued to rise since 2004, reaching 147.27 US dollars in July 2008, and then suddenly fell to more than 30 US dollars due to the financial crisis and other reasons. After that, it rose again by more than 100 US dollars in 2011. High and unstable oil prices have become a big uneasy factor. But on the other hand, compared with natural gas and coal, oil has special value that is difficult to replace. For example, oil can be used as fuel for automobiles and jets after refining. At the same time, oil is also more convenient than liquefied natural gas (LN G) in terms of transportation and storage. Therefore, ensuring the source of oil imports is still an important issue in Japan's energy diplomacy.

From coal, 2010Coal-fired power accounts for 25.0 percent of Japan's total annual power generation, about three times that of oil. At present, Japan uses Australia as an important source of coal imports, where open-pit coal mining conditions are good and can be mined by mechanized methods. At the same time, the maritime transport volume of coal has increased greatly, second only to crude oil, and large coal carriers of 300000 tons have appeared. The biggest disadvantage of coal is that the carbon dioxide emission in the process of power generation is much higher than that of oil and natural gas, and the environmental pollution is also serious. Therefore, it will not be the first choice for Japan to expand the import of power fuel in the future.

From natural gas, 2010Annual L N G thermal power accounts for 29 .3% of Japan's total domestic power generation, the highest among the three thermal power generation fuels. The distribution of natural gas is wider and scattered than that of oil, and its carbon dioxide emission is the lowest among the three main fuels. The disadvantage of L N G is that the price and freight are relatively high, and the storage and transportation are relatively difficult. Compared with Europe from Russia and the United States from Canada, they all import natural gas through pipelines, northeast Asia, including Japan, can only import L N G from the Middle East and other places through L N G tankers (Europe also imports LN G from the Middle East). Weighing the above pros and cons, coupled with Japan's rich technology and experience in the efficient use of LN G, Japan will rely more on LN G thermal power generation to make up for the energy gap brought about by "de-nuclear power" in order to seek a new "best combination of energy" in the next few years.

Before the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, Japan was already the world's largest LN GImporting countries consume about 1/3 of the world's LN G production. From January to October 2012, Japan's L N G imports reached about 5 trillion yen, an increase of 30% over the same period last year. In addition, Japan is scheduled to start operating 30 LN G thermal power stations in 2020, with a total power generation capacity of 15.9 million kilowatts (3 coal thermal power stations will start operating in the same year, with a total power generation capacity of 2.2 million kilowatts). Therefore, whether it is possible to ensure a stable supply of L N G at an acceptable price in the future has become an important issue in Japan's energy foreign policy.

With the United States and Russia as the main direction to seek natural gas, oil import diversification in the natural gas source countries, the world's largest L N GDue to the impact of the situation in the Middle East, the supply of Qatar, the producer country, may be unstable. Therefore, while Japan continues to maintain its oil and natural gas imports from the Middle East, it vigorously promotes the strategy of diversifying energy sources. On the one hand, it improves the price bargaining chip with existing energy source countries. On the other hand, it shifts the focus of energy diplomacy to the United States where the "shale gas revolution" is emerging and Sakhalin the Far East of Russia, in particular, it is eager to take air from the "gas-rich" island of Sakhalin by laying subsea pipelines.

As far as the United States is concerned, according to the law, in order to become a natural gas export country of the United States, it must conclude a free trade agreement (FT A) with the United States.However, Japan, a "close" ally of the United States, has not yet concluded FT A with the United States. Recently, a report from the US government stated that "sending some of the newly discovered natural gas in the United States overseas is more beneficial to the US economy than keeping it at home". However, opposition to the export of shale gas in the United States is still very high, on the grounds that large amounts of shale gas will damage the environment, while the export of shale gas will also lead to higher domestic energy prices, the United States LN G production and shipping facilities have yet to be completed. In addition, the United States is the world's largest natural gas consumer, and the United States uses a large amount of natural gas for heating. Therefore, the domestic natural gas demand in the United States will increase significantly every winter. Japan cannot be allowed to import natural gas from the United States at least this winter or longer. In response to this situation, Japan's Mitsui & Co., Itochu Corporation, Mitsubishi Corporation and other trading companies have increased their investment in recent years, aiming at unconventional energy resource projects such as shale gas and shale oil in North America, which are expected to become an "energy treasure house", and are actively preparing for the establishment of a system for processing shale gas produced in the United States into LN G and then exporting it to Japan, at the same time, it turns its attention to energy resources such as L N G and oil produced in Canada, Mexico, Australia and Africa. Especially for the United States, Japan, on the grounds that it is an important ally of the United States, continues to insist that the United States export L N G to Japan as soon as possible. It is expected that with the continuous progress of mining technology, the United States will eventually move towards a major natural gas exporter, and may export LN G to Japan as a soft power to strengthen the US-Japan alliance characterized by Japan's subordination to the United States, so as to make Japan more "obedient" obedient "to the United States", take a more positive attitude towards joining T PP.

On the other hand, for Russia, which is a major natural gas producer alongside the United States, it is trying to maintain the LN G paid by Japan to Russia.The price is higher than the price of natural gas imported from Russia by European pipelines, which is obviously beneficial to Russia. Besides, processing natural gas into LN G is not locked in Japan like using pipelines to transmit gas, but can also be sold to other countries. Therefore, Russia is not active in laying submarine pipelines.

As we all know, in order to process natural gas into LN G, large-scale liquefaction equipment and LN G transport ships are needed, and large-scale import bases are also needed in terms of utilization, which means that both sides of LN G transaction need to make huge initial investment. Therefore, LN G trade, excluding some markets such as the United States, mostly adopts long-term contracts signed by both supply and demand sides, especially for suppliers, will develop only when the future sales target (income source) is confirmed to be guaranteed, it will not rush to invest heavily in development without clearly identifying the buyer and its demand, and this principle obviously also applies to large projects such as the laying of natural gas pipelines, which require the establishment of a reliable relationship of good faith between the two parties to the transaction.

At present, the representative natural gas pipelines that already exist are about 9000 connecting Russia, Ukraine and Germany.In addition, the large circulation route of natural gas is the LN G tanker transport line between Qatar and other Middle East countries and Asia Pacific countries. Under the circumstances that Vladivostok already has a liquefied natural gas plant, Japan wants to find another way to import natural gas directly through the pipeline and lay a natural gas transportation pipeline like that between Russia and Ukraine. It is not so simple. It depends on the relationship between Japan and Russia. During the Noda government of the former Japanese Prime Minister, the island dispute between Japan and Russia heated up, as a result, the two countries also lack a good political atmosphere for large-scale cooperation projects. After the Abe regime came to power, in order to fulfill its commitment to revitalize the economy, it may temporarily shelve the issue of island sovereignty, and strive to improve Japan-Russia relations to ensure the supply of natural gas from Russia., And even realize the dream of laying a natural gas pipeline between Japan and Russia, and only after the construction of the Japan-Russia natural gas pipeline is finalized, japan is only lucky to have invested heavily in the construction of a domestic gas pipeline network that is still relatively small.

competing for dominance in the world energy technology market,So far, Japan's energy diplomacy has been focused on how to ensure a stable supply of fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas. In recent years, under the background of warming climate and long-term supply of fossil fuels, energy-saving technologies, nuclear power technology, wind power generation and so on have been widely valued by countries all over the world. Many countries, including the United States, actively implement the Green New Deal, strengthen investment in the environment and energy fields, and cultivate related industries, which has also become an important means to create employment opportunities and revive the economy.

In the face of such an international situation, in order to ensure its international competitiveness, Japan, as a "small resource country", continues to promote the innovation of industrial technology, energy conservation and new energy technology, which has become Japan's strong point. While continuing to import necessary energy resources from overseas, Japan's advanced technology is regarded as Japan's "independent resource" and an important trump card in Japan's energy diplomacy, Actively promote the so-called "energy technology diplomacy". Japan to date through government development assistance (O D A)The export of advanced energy-related technologies has become one of the countries that have contributed the most to the world's energy conservation and environmental protection. In addition, Japan markets its advanced technology through bilateral trade and direct investment channels. In 2011 and 2012, Japan won a long list of orders for energy technology cooperation overseas with its advanced energy-related technologies.

The "supercritical pressure mode" developed by Japan for thermal power stations can reach 43% of the world's highest level.The thermal efficiency is known as "the world's first clean coal-fired power generation" and is favored by the power generation departments of many countries in the world.

How to win in the international standardization competition is an important issue for Japan to compete for the dominance of the world energy technology market. The so-called "international standardization competition" is essentially the diplomatic negotiation of how to make the domestic technology "international standardization. At present, the main place for diplomatic negotiations around international standardization is ISO (International Organization for Standardization), IEC (International Electrotechnical Commission) and other international standardization bodies. According to the number of standardization cases undertaken by ISO and IEC two international standardization bodies in 2007 (compared with 159 in Germany, 148 in the United States and 102 in France, Japan has only 67 cases), Japan subjectively believes that Japan's so-called "political influence" in international standardization bodies is not as good as that of Germany, France and the United States. In the future, Japan should not only vigorously strengthen the research and development of environment-friendly energy technologies (such as smart grid and floating wind power generation devices), but also vigorously enhance the political influence of its energy diplomacy in the international standardization competition, so as to avoid the dilemma that Japan has advanced technology but must adopt other countries' technology.

Finally, it should be pointed out that the cooperation between China and Japan in energy conservation, emission reduction and new energy technology can bring mutual benefit and win-win results to the two countries. We should actively promote it and not be affected by the political relations between the two countries and interfere with the normal economic cooperation and exchanges between the two countries. We should actively make use of Japan's technology and experience in energy conservation and emission reduction, energy-saving vehicles, energy conservation and environmental protection in high energy-consuming industries such as steel and coal-fired power generation, so as to help us control air pollution and water pollution such as haze and contribute to the sustainable development of science in China.